Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
